Monday, June 22, 2009

more on Iran

by way of Nate Silver

"Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas"

3 comments:

kevtron said...

i also love fivethirtyeight.com and nate silver. i don't know what to think about Iran. there were counties in Ohio in 2004 that had over 100% turnout. guess who won in those precincts?

kevtron said...

ps, I tend to think that if an election is to be stolen, it is far more likely to be a "close call", rather than 63% to 34%. It would buld be an amazing feat to reallocate over 11 million ballots, in the case of Iran last weekend.

what do you think?

ben said...

Well I guess the way it happens is that the only people with access to voting info is Ahmeneidfhdghdhghdjad's ministry of information, with no impartial oversight. So they just sort of...declare what the numbers were. What people think is happening is the ...Hitlerism I guess, that people are far more likely to believe the big lie than the small lie.

That's what the clerics have been saying, 'sure some fraud may have taken place, but that would only explain a million or so votes, a couple of percentages, not 63-34'. But in Iran, it's just as easy to fake a huge margin as it is to fake a small margin.