Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Nate Silver, Sotomayor and Major League Baseball

So obviously Sotomayor's connection to baseball is sort of silly and incidental.

I've been thinking about Nate Silver today.

everyone who reads political news knows that Nate Silver has revolutionized the way polling data for political campaigns is being analyzed. Many people may also know that Silver achieved great success in baseball analysis (sabermetrics), with a projection system called PECOTA (Player Empirical something or other).

While Silver's projection system is the most complete and certainly the best, he was far from the first to take this sort of approach. Clay Davenport (baltimore meteorologist), Bill James, and many others had similar, if less powerful systems.

I think it's pretty crazy that the current cutting edge of political analysis is being informed by the work done in the world of baseball statistics 6-8 years ago.

3 comments:

RemyLBO said...

what does that have to do with Sotomayor?

ben said...

oh, I forgot to write about that.

She is just the one that got me thinking abnout baseball. Because of her role in the players strike of 1994-1995.

She said that the owners couldn't use scrubs and strikebreakers.

She's very popular among Orioles fans, because her ruling made it possible for Cal Ripken to get his consecutive games played streak. Had she allowed scrubs to play, then the streak would have been stopped.

RemyLBO said...

I was picturing the owners dressed up like surgeons

Orioles fans are also all reverse racists